Coronavirus Update March 26th for Detroit Michigan: Can you be Immune to the Coronavirus?
Coronavirus Update March 26th for Detroit Michigan
The Coronavirus continues to spread in Michigan. As of today at 2 pm, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services has reported that there have been 60 deaths and 2,856 cases. That is a mortality rate of 2.1% as of today.
The Coronavirus is concerning for so many reasons, but the two biggest reasons are the rate of transmission and the mortality rate. The Coronavirus spreads, on average, to 2.5 to 2.9 people once an individual is infected. Also, the global mortality rate has been in the 3 to 4% range. Compared to the Flu, these numbers are staggering. The Flu has a rate of transmission of 1.3 and a mortality rate of 0.1%. That makes the Coronavirus 30 to 40 times more deadly than the flu.
Below are the number of cases by Health Department here in Michigan and the number of deaths by Health Department. Detroit is within Wayne County, but it has its own health department, so those numbers are separate from Wayne County Cases.
How Many People Have Tested Positive and How Many People Have Tested Negative?
The State of Michigan today released their data regarding positive tests and negative tests.
30 of 744 outpatient tests have been positive, or a rate of 4.03% at the doctor’s office
1866 of 5261 hospital-based tests have been positive, or a rate of 35.4% at the hospital
557 of 3104 health department cases have been positive, or a rate of 17.9% at the health department
This tells us that if you’re well enough for your doctor to test you at the office and send you home, you are unlikely to have the Coronavirus. It also tells us that if you’re sick enough for your doctor to direct you to the hospital and you meet the testing criteria at the hospital (fever, cough, potential exposure), then you have a good chance of testing positive at 35.4%. This information can be found on the MDHHS Website.
Data from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services showing the number of positive and negative tests in the State of Michigan as of 03/25/2020.
Hospital Beds are Filling up in Detroit
According to this article in the Detroit Free Press, the Beaumont Hospitals in Detroit and West Bloomfield are filling up with patients.
The health system is "facing limitations and nearing capacity with our testing, personal protective equipment and mechanical ventilators," said Beaumont Health Chief Operating Officer Carolyn Wilson. “We are taking steps to increase our capacity, such as converting some of our operating rooms into intensive care units.
“We have been actively transferring COVID-19 patients within our system to other Beaumont hospitals, as appropriate, if one hospital has more capacity than another."
According to this article in the Detroit News, Henry Ford Health System is facing the same challenges.
"Today our capacity is quite full at those two hospitals — West Bloomfield and Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit," said Dr. Betty Chu, associate chief clinical officer and chief quality officer. Chu is leading the health system's coronavirus response.
"We fortunately have the luxury right now of having additional capacity at some of our other campuses."
This is concerning because there are a limited number of staff, beds, and equipment to adequately are for Coronavirus patients here in the Detroit and Metro Detroit area.
As beds fill up and as our hospital personnel are stretched thin, we may be in a situation where doctors have to pick who lives and who dies simply based on issues of capacity. This is truly a terrible situation and one that we want to completely avoid.
That is why it’s so important to stay at home and avoid any unnecessary contact with people, by which you may become infected.
City of Detroit Will Begin Offering Free Coronavirus Testing Tomorrow
Unfortunately, the City of Detroit has been hit hard by the Coronavirus. But, Mayor Mike Duggan and the City of Detroit will begin testing people at the State Fairgrounds at 8 mile and Woodward to hopefully stem the tide. The aim is to test 50 people every hour and 400 people every day with this drive-through testing.
Testing is important because it can help us track the spread of infection and it can help people prevent the spread by self-quarantine if they find out that they are infected. You can learn more about this testing via the City of Detroit, here.
How Can I Become Immune to the Coronavirus?
Yes, you can become immune to the Coronavirus. When you get infected with the Coronavirus, your body will produce antibodies or immunoglobulins to the Coronavirus. First you’ll make IgM, and then IgG. This will confer long-term immunity to you.
Scientists estimate that you’ll be immune for 1 to 3 years based on previous infection and immunity rates from other Coronaviruses. This is why you can’t get re-infected by COVID-19. Once you have the virus, you’ll be immune to future infection.
This is important for several reasons. Over the next few weeks to the next few months, there will be a test of immunity. It will likely be a finger-stick blood test, using a drop of blood to measure the immunoglobulins like IgM or IgG to make sure folks are immune.
This will be especially important for doctors, nurses, hospital workers, and other critical staff. If we know that these folks are immune to Coronavirus, they can go back to treating patients with minimal risk of infection going forward. This test is pending as of now.
HOw will the Coronavirus Pandemic End?
The Coronavirus pandemic will end when we reach a Herd Immunity. Herd Immunity means that enough people in the population are immune to the Coronavirus, which will greatly limit its spread.
This Herd Immunity can be achieved in a few different ways. First, once a number of Americans get the Coronavirus, they will fight off the infection and become immune, limiting the spread of the virus once they recover. Second, once a vaccine is developed, many more people will become immune through vaccination.
Just like being vaccinated for the influenza virus or for Measles, Mumps, and Rubella, once you’re vaccinated for these viruses, your body creates immunoglobulins or antibodies to help protect you from infection from these viruses.
Unfortunately, the Coronavirus or COVID-19 vaccine will take 18 months to 2 years to develop, so this option will take a long time to achieve.
This image demonstrates Herd Immunity. The left hand panel shows what we’re dealing with right now with the Novel Coronavirus or COVID-19. No one is immune to this COVID-19 yet. The right hand panel shows Herd Immunity. The yellow figures are immune to the virus, so the spread of the virus will be limited. Herd Immunity defined: the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, especially through vaccination.
Thanks for reading and watching. Please stay safe and healthy in this time,
-Dr. Paul Thomas with Plum Health DPC